Gravis Marketing

Montana Special Election Poll

May 7, 2017


Special elections have been going on across the country to replace House Members who have joined the Trump Administration. The state of Montana came under the spotlight as the state pit the folk singing democrat and lifelong Montana resident Rob Quist against millionaire Greg Gianforte to replace Ryan Zinke who has gone on to become Donald Trump’s Secretary of the Interior. Gravis Marketing is releasing a Montana special election poll.

Donald Trump Jr. made a special trip to Montana to campaign for Gianforte- asking Montanans to prove that Trump’s victory in November wasn’t just a fluke and that the American people are serious about supporting conservative values. But the state of Montana also elected a democratic governor and has had a democratic senator since the late 80s, and just as Trump Jr. arrived to support Gianforte for two days last month- Bernie Sanders has expressed his support for Quist.

The state of Montana hasn’t voted a democrat into its House seat in over twenty years. Gianforte is campaigning on his promise to create jobs, and on claims that Rob Quist is not a serious candidate. Quist has a great deal of local support due to his mainstream and progressive policies. As wel as his affinity for the region as he is seen as a genuine Montanan. Gianforte has only lived in the state for just over twenty years. Gianforte’s previous lead of more than twenty points gave republicans a great deal of hope in closing the linchpin on their majority in Congress. That lead has now shrunk to 6 in the latest Gravis Marketing Montana special election poll.

Gravis Marketing Has Released Multiple Montana Special Election Polls

A series of Montana special election polls by Gravis Marketing revealed the following facts about public sentiment surrounding the issues:

  • 72% said they were likely to vote
  • 53% said they approved of Donald Trump’s job performance
  • 47% expressed approval for Democratic Governor Bullock’s performance in 2017
  • 52% said they would vote for Gianforte
  • 37% said they would vote for Quist
  • Party affiliation polled at; 26% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 37% Independent

Rob Quist calls Montana “The Purple State,” and is still slightly behind- but is gaining on his opponent by strides. But support for Trump is strong in this region of Middle America. The candidates sparred over tax reform, campaign finance, and Russia. Quist argued that Gianforte’s quarter of a million dollars of investments in Russia constituted a conflict of interest. Gianforte’s twenty point lead late last month has receded, and Quist is now making strong gains in this race which will conclude later this month.

 

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted two surveys of likely voters in Montana. The first survey comprised 836 individuals, conducted on April 27th. The second survey comprised 462 individuals, conducted from May 2nd to the 4th. The first poll has a margin of error of ±3.4% and the second poll has a margin of error of ±4.6%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users, with the results weighted by demographic characteristics. Reported first are the first survey results, reported second are the second survey results.

When Bloomberg Politics rated the polling organizations’ predictions of the results of the 2016 primaries, it found that Gravis Marketing’s results were 95 percent accurate for the contests it covered, the highest rating of any organization. No pollster was more accurate. Only four other organizations predicted primary results with 90 percent accuracy or greater.  Follow Gravis on Linkedin

2) How likely are you to vote in the Montana U.S. House special election?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

3) Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s job performance?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

4) Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bullock’s job performance?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

5) Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tester’s job performance?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

6) If the special election for Congress were held today and the candidates were Republican Greg Gianforte, Democrat Rob Quist, Libertarian Mark Wicks, and Green Thomas Breck, who would you vote for?
First Results, April 27th
Gianforte Leads Quist In Special Election Poll

Second Results, May 4th
Montana Special Election Poll

The following questions are for demographic purposes:
7) What is your party affiliation?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

8) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

9) What race do you identify yourself as?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

10) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

11) What is the highest level of education you have completed?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

12) How old are you?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

13) What is your gender?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

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