Rauner Leads in Illinois
Winter Springs, Fla. – A growing lead for Illinois Gubernatorial Candidate Bruce Rauner and a potential concerning lead for incumbent Senator Dick Durbin highlight the recent findings of a Gravis Marketing -Human Events poll completed in Illinois. On August 4th & 5th, Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm headquartered in Winter Springs, Fla. conducted a random survey of 567 registered voters in Illinois regarding statewide matchups heading into the General Election to be contested November 4th, 2014. The Gravis Marketing poll carries a margin of error of ± 4% with a 95% confidence level.
The political poll was completed using Gravis Marketing Internet Panels combined with traditional telephone responses. The results of this poll were weighted 20% via Gravis Internet Panels & 80% through an automated telephone survey.
The recent Gravis Marketing-Human Events Illinois poll was kicked off by asking 567 registered voters about the job performance of their former State Senator – President Barack Obama. The voters were asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?” 48% of those polled held a disapproving opinion of the President’s job performance, while 45% ‘Approved’ of his job performance – and 7% of those polled were ‘Unsure’.
The scope of the poll then shifted focus on Illinois statewide elections where the voters were asked – “If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Bruce Rauner and Democrat Pat Quinn, whom would you vote for?” The Republican Candidate Rauner received support from 48% of those polled; while the Democratic Candidate Quinn captured 40% – while 12% remain ‘Unsure’. Rauner’s lead in Illinois has grown to 48%-38% from the previous April 2nd, 2014 Gravis Marketing poll where he led by a margin of 43%-35%. Rauner is also currently leading with independent voters by a wide margin 50%-31%, while Quinn captured only 74% of his supporters from registered Democrats.
“In 2010, Mark Kirk was able to secure Barack Obama’s open senate seat during mid-term elections,” stated Doug Kaplan, the Managing Partner of Gravis Marketing. “If the poll numbers hold and Bruce Rauner is able to take the Governor’s Mansion from the Democrats; it would be an amazing change of circumstances in the Presidents home state.”
The voters were then asked, “If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Jim Oberweis and Democrat Dick Durbin – whom would you vote for?” 48% of the Illinois registered voters polled chose to support the Incumbent Senator Dick Durbin, while 38% support the Republican Candidate Jim Oberweis. The current margin of lead for Durbin may cause some concern for his political advisors and re-election staff, as there is a gap of 14% of those who have not decided on their votes according to the Gravis Marketing poll.
In the race for the State of Illinois Treasurer – voters were asked; “If the election for Treasurer were held today and the candidates were Republican Tom Cross and Democrat Mike Freichs, whom would you vote for?” Tom Cross, the Former State House Minority Leader received 41% support, Freichs captured 36% of those polled. The poll indicated a higher capture ratio of same-party voters for Cross than registered Democrats that support Freichs. Independent voters also lean toward supporting Cross.
Finally, in the battle for State of Illinois Comptroller the Gravis Marketing poll indicated that incumbent Republican Judy Baar Topinka leads Democratic Lt. Governor Shelia Simon by a margin of 51%-34% and appears to be favored for re-election. The Republican Incumbent leads this poll with both Men (56%-32%) and Women (46%-38%).
Note: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and internet surveys and weighted according to historical voting demographics.
Established in 2010 by co-founder Doug Kaplan, Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan research firm headquartered in Winter Springs, Florida. Gravis Marketing was the recipient of the 2013 American Association of Political Consultants Award for 2012 Presidential Primary domestic and international phone calls. To learn more about Gravis Marketing and review previous State and Federal polling data, please visit our website @ http://www.GravisMarketing.com.
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Supporting and qualifying data results are posted below.
Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?
If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Jim Oberweis and Democrat Dick Durbin, whom would you vote for?
If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Bruce Rauner and Democrat Pat Quinn, whom would you vote for?
If the election for Comptroller were held today and the candidates were Republican Judy Baar Topinka, Democrat Sheila Simon, whom would you vote for?
If the election for Treasurer were held today and the candidates were Republican Tom Cross and Democrat Mike Freichs, whom would you vote for?
How likely are you to vote in the General Election on November 4, 2014?
What is your political party affiliation?
Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic, or Spanish speaking background?
What race do you identify yourself as?
Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
How old are you?
What is your gender?