Category Archives: Polls

Gravis Marketing Alabama Poll Results

“Former U.S. attorney G. Douglas Jones, a Democrat, holds a slim lead over his GOP challenger and two-time state chief justice Roy S. Moore with 48 percent to Moore’s 44 percent, according to the Big League-Gravis poll conducted Dec. 1 through Dec. 3 with 1,276 voters likely to vote in Alabama’s Dec. 12 special Senate election. Big League Reports

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE DECEMBER 3, 2017

INTERVIEWS: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Questions concerning methodology can be sent to doug@gravismarketing.com.

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,276 likely voters across Alabama. The poll was conducted from December 1st through the 3rd and has a margin of error of ±2.7%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. The results are weighted by voting demographics.

Q1 How likely are you to vote in the runoff election for US Senate to be held on December 12?
Very likely………………………………………72%

Likely…………………………………….………….18%

Somewhat likely………………………………..….10%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
Strongly approve………………………………40%

Somewhat approve…………………….………….11%

Somewhat disapprove……………………..……….5%

Strongly disapprove……………………………….40%

Uncertain…………………………………………….4%

Q3 Will you vote for a Democrat or Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018?
Democrat………………………………………………….. 41%

Republican………………..…………..……..…48%

Uncertain………………………….……….………11%

Q4 How favorable or unfavorable are you toward Donald Trump?
Very favorable…………………………………40%

Somewhat favorable…………….…….………….12%

Uncertain……………………..……………….…….3%

Somewhat unfavorable……….…………………….6%

Very unfavorable………………….……………….39%

Q5 How favorable or unfavorable are you toward Roy Moore?
Very favorable…………………………………27%

Somewhat favorable…………….…….………….15%

Uncertain……………………..……………….…….7%

Somewhat unfavorable……….…………………….6%

Very unfavorable………………….……………….45%

Q6 How favorable or unfavorable are you toward Doug Jones?
Very favorable…………………………………32%

Somewhat favorable…………….…….………….14%

Uncertain……………………..…..….……….…….9%

Somewhat unfavorable……….…………………….7%

Very unfavorable………………….……………….39%

Q7 Who did you vote for in the primary for US Senate?
Republican Roy Moore……………………………….. 30% Democrat Doug Jones……………………………. 26%

Republican Luther Strange………………………….. 19%

Didn’t vote………………………………………………… 15%

Republican Mo Brooks…………………………………. 4%

Republican Trip Pittman………………………………. 1%

Another Democrat……………………………………….. 3%

Democrat Robert Kennedy……………………………. 1%

Another Republican……………………………………… 1%

Q8 If the election for US Senate were held today for whom would you vote?
Republican Roy Moore……………………………….. 44% Democrat Doug Jones……………………………. 48%

Uncertain…………………………………………………… 8%

Q9 If you are undecided, which candidate do you most lean toward?
Republican Roy Moore……………………………….. 32% Democrat Doug Jones……………………………. 17%

Uncertain…………………………………………………. 51%

Q8+Q9 Voting for or leaning towards

Republican Roy Moore……………………………….. 46% Democrat Doug Jones……………………………. 49%

Uncertain……………………………………………………. 4%

Q10 Have you heard or read any news about sexual assault accusations against Roy Moore recently?
Yes…………………………………………………………… 94% No…….…………………………………………………… 6%

Q11 How did what you heard or read about these accusations impact your likelihood to vote for Roy Moore?
More likely………………………………………………… 23%

No impact on likelihood to vote…………….……48%

Less likely to vote……………………………………….. 30%

Q12 Do you believe these accusations about Roy Moore?
Yes…………………………………………………………… 42% No…….…………………………………………………. 34%

Uncertain……………………………..……….24%

Q13 Do you believe the Washington Post did the right thing in publishing these accusations?
Yes…………………………………………………………… 49% No…….…………………………………………………. 34%

Uncertain……………………………..……….17%

Q14 Who do you think is more likely telling the truth?
Four Women……………………………………………… 44% Republican Roy Moore…….…………………….. 32%

Uncertain……………………………..……….24%

Q15 Do you trust Roy Moore?
Yes…………………………………………………………… 37% No…….…………………………………………………. 47%

Uncertain……………………………..……….15%

Q16 What is your party affiliation?
Democrat………………………………………………….. 33% Independent or in Another Party…………………. 19%

Republican……………………………………..48%

Q17 Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?
No……………………………………………………………. 98% Yes………………………………………………………… 2%

Q18 What race do you identify yourself as?
White/Caucasian……………………………………….. 73% African-American……………………………………. 22%

Hispanic………………………………………………….. 2%

Asian………………………………………………………. 1%

Other/No Affiliation………………………………….. 1%

Q19 Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Catholic……………………………………………………… 6% Other/No Affiliation…………………………………… 23%

Protestant/Other Non-Denom. Christian………. 49%

Jewish………………………………………………………. 1%

Evangelical Christian………………………………… 21%

Muslim……………………………………………………… 1%

Q20 What is the highest level of education you have completed?
Some High School/No Diploma……………………… 3% High School Graduate……………………………… 22%

Some College………………………………………….. 31%

Bachelor’s Degree…………………………………… 30%

Post Graduate…………………………………………. 14%

Q21 What is your annual household income?
Under $30,000…………………………………………… 20% $30,000 to $50,000……………………………….. 20%

$50,000 to $100,000………………………………. 29%

$100,000 to $150,000……………………………. 14%

Over $150,000…………………………………….. 7%

Uncertain…………………………………………………. 11%

Q22 What is your age group?
18-29……………………………………………………….. 12% 30-49……………………………………………………….. 31%

50-64…………………………………………..32%

Over 65……………………………..………………25%

Q23 What is your gender?
Male………………………………………………………… 48% Female………………………………………………….. 52%

GM_Release_AL_12032017 v2 Crosstabs – Table Format – ALABAMA – DECEMBER 4 2017GM_Release_AL_12032017 v2

“With less than two weeks left before the special election, the race is tight and going to pivot on which direction the Luther Strange voters go,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that executed the poll. The poll carries a 2.7 percent margin of error.

Sen. Luther J. Strange III (R.-Ala.) lost the Sept. 26 primary runoff to Moore with Strange securing 218,066 votes to Moore’s 262,204 votes.

“Who are the voters, who are going to vote against Moore twice?” Kaplan asked.

In the Aug. 15 Democratic primary, Jones secured 109,105 votes of the 165,006 votes cast, if all the Democrats vote for Jones, Moore needs to hold on to 97,199 Strange voters, or 45 percent of the Strange voters, if the turnout in this off-cycle winter election matches the turnout from the August contest for the Democrats and the September contest for the Republicans.

In the Nov. 14 Big League-Gravis poll, 64 percent of the Republicans who voted for Strange, roughly 140,000, said they would support Moore two days after the article in The Washington Post and 22 percent said they would vote for Jones.

Kaplan said Jones is getting 93 percent of Democrats, while Moore only gets 76 percent of Republicans.

“Jones is also winning with self-identified Independents by more than 25 percent,” he said.

“This is third of four polls we are conducting in Alabama and another key is the undecided vote,” he said.

“When we saw the shift for Jones in the last poll, there was a movement of voters saying they were undecided, instead of coming out for Jones,” he said.

“In this poll, either Jones is winning in the poll or people are being dishonest, because they don’t want to admit that they are actually voting for Moore.”

Gravis Marketing GA 6th Congressional Poll






INTERVIEWS: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Questions concerning methodology can be sent to doug@gravismarketing.com, or check the last paragraph on this introduction.

Roswell, Ga. – With a little more than 5 weeks to go before the June 20th election, Jon Ossoff holds a 47% to 45% lead over Karen Handel in the race for Georgia’s 6th Congressional seat.




Fascinatingly, although Ossoff holds a slight lead over Handel, Handel holds a surprising lead in the favorability rating, with 41% of respondents giving Handel a favorable rating and only 35% giving her an unfavorable rating. The results are flipped when discussing Ossoff. Respondents gave Ossoff a 40% favorability rating and a 45% unfavorability rating.
Georgians also gave Handel a 45% to 43% edge on whom they trust most to handle healthcare, even though only 33% of respondents gave the healthcare law passed by the U.S. House of Representatives a favorable rating, while 42% gave the law an unfavorable rating.




The poll also finds President Trump to have a positive favorability rating, with 46% of respondents approving of the job Trump is doing as president and 43% giving Trump a disapproval rating.




Survey participants were also asked how they felt about Governor Deal. Governor Deal has a strong approval rating, with 53% of respondents giving Governor Deal a positive approval rating and only 26% of respondents disapproving of his job performance.




Perhaps the most interesting finding is how individuals that voted during the special election are leaning now. Ms. Handel has been able to keep 87% of individuals that voted for her, 94% of individuals that voted for Hill, 85% of individuals that voted for Gray, and 90% of individuals that voted for Moody. By contrast, 93% of individuals that voted for Mr. Ossoff in the Primary are leaning towards voting for Mr. Ossoff again. Of individuals that didn’t vote during the Primary, 53% are leaning towards Ossoff, while 32% are leaning towards Handel.




Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 870 likely voters in Georgia. The poll was conducted from May 8th through the 10th and has a margin of error of ±3.3%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users, with the results weighted by demographics.




Georgia Special Election Poll Results Gravis Marketing










Gravis Marketing

Montana Special Election Poll


Special elections have been going on across the country to replace House Members who have joined the Trump Administration. The state of Montana came under the spotlight as the state pit the folk singing democrat and lifelong Montana resident Rob Quist against millionaire Greg Gianforte to replace Ryan Zinke who has gone on to become Donald Trump’s Secretary of the Interior. Gravis Marketing is releasing a Montana special election poll.

Donald Trump Jr. made a special trip to Montana to campaign for Gianforte- asking Montanans to prove that Trump’s victory in November wasn’t just a fluke and that the American people are serious about supporting conservative values. But the state of Montana also elected a democratic governor and has had a democratic senator since the late 80s, and just as Trump Jr. arrived to support Gianforte for two days last month- Bernie Sanders has expressed his support for Quist.

The state of Montana hasn’t voted a democrat into its House seat in over twenty years. Gianforte is campaigning on his promise to create jobs, and on claims that Rob Quist is not a serious candidate. Quist has a great deal of local support due to his mainstream and progressive policies. As wel as his affinity for the region as he is seen as a genuine Montanan. Gianforte has only lived in the state for just over twenty years. Gianforte’s previous lead of more than twenty points gave republicans a great deal of hope in closing the linchpin on their majority in Congress. That lead has now shrunk to 6 in the latest Gravis Marketing Montana special election poll.

Gravis Marketing Has Released Multiple Montana Special Election Polls

A series of Montana special election polls by Gravis Marketing revealed the following facts about public sentiment surrounding the issues:

  • 72% said they were likely to vote
  • 53% said they approved of Donald Trump’s job performance
  • 47% expressed approval for Democratic Governor Bullock’s performance in 2017
  • 52% said they would vote for Gianforte
  • 37% said they would vote for Quist
  • Party affiliation polled at; 26% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 37% Independent

Rob Quist calls Montana “The Purple State,” and is still slightly behind- but is gaining on his opponent by strides. But support for Trump is strong in this region of Middle America. The candidates sparred over tax reform, campaign finance, and Russia. Quist argued that Gianforte’s quarter of a million dollars of investments in Russia constituted a conflict of interest. Gianforte’s twenty point lead late last month has receded, and Quist is now making strong gains in this race which will conclude later this month.

 

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted two surveys of likely voters in Montana. The first survey comprised 836 individuals, conducted on April 27th. The second survey comprised 462 individuals, conducted from May 2nd to the 4th. The first poll has a margin of error of ±3.4% and the second poll has a margin of error of ±4.6%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users, with the results weighted by demographic characteristics. Reported first are the first survey results, reported second are the second survey results.

When Bloomberg Politics rated the polling organizations’ predictions of the results of the 2016 primaries, it found that Gravis Marketing’s results were 95 percent accurate for the contests it covered, the highest rating of any organization. No pollster was more accurate. Only four other organizations predicted primary results with 90 percent accuracy or greater.  Follow Gravis on Linkedin

2) How likely are you to vote in the Montana U.S. House special election?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

3) Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s job performance?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

4) Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bullock’s job performance?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

5) Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tester’s job performance?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

6) If the special election for Congress were held today and the candidates were Republican Greg Gianforte, Democrat Rob Quist, Libertarian Mark Wicks, and Green Thomas Breck, who would you vote for?
First Results, April 27th
Gianforte Leads Quist In Special Election Poll

Second Results, May 4th
Montana Special Election Poll

The following questions are for demographic purposes:
7) What is your party affiliation?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

8) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

9) What race do you identify yourself as?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

10) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

11) What is the highest level of education you have completed?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

12) How old are you?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

13) What is your gender?
First Results, April 27th

Second Results, May 4th

Gravis Marketing

Gravis Marketing 2018 Ohio Poll Results

 

In a recent poll of 1,352 Ohio voters, nonpartisan research firm Gravis Marketing found that 49 percent had a favorable opinion of President Donald Trump, while 43 percent have an unfavorable opinion and 8 percent are not sure. Republican Governor John Kasich had less favorable numbers, with 42 percent approval, 35 percent disapproval, and 23 percent unsure.

Voters’ opinions of Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown were more evenly split, with 32 percent approving his job performance, 36 percent disapproving, and 32 percent uncertain. Brown will be up for reelection to a third term in November 2018.

Gravis asked how Brown would fare against two possible Republican opponents. Josh Mandel had the support of 45 percent, while 42 percent supported Brown and 13 percent were unsure. But Republican Pat Tiberi pulled 41 percent to Brown’s 43 percent, with 16 percent unsure. Because the margin of error was 2.7 percent, however, Mandel has only a slight lead over Brown, while the race between Brown and Tiberi is too close to call.

2018 Race For Governor Ohio Poll

Looking ahead to the 2018 gubernatorial primaries, 41 percent of those polled planned to vote in the Democratic primary. Nearly 51 percent would vote in the Republican primary, while 8 percent were undecided.

2018 Ohio Republican Primary For Governor Ohio Poll

In the race for governor, 31 percent of Republican primary voters chose Attorney General Mike DeWine. Forty percent were undecided. Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, and Jim Renacci polled at 14 percent, 10 percent, and 6 percent, respectively.

2018 Democratic Primary Ohio Poll For Governor

Among Democratic primary voters, 67 percent were undecided. Betty Sutton had the support of 13 percent, Joe Schiavoni, 12 percent, and Connie Pillich, 8 percent.

Gravis Marketing conducted the poll from April 27 through May 2, 2017 by using interactive voice responses and online panels of cell phone users. The results were weighted by voting patterns overall and by the demographic makeup of voters in the party primaries.

When Bloomberg Politics rated the polling organizations’ predictions of the results of the 2016 primaries, it found that Gravis Marketing’s results were 95 percent accurate for the contests it covered, the highest rating of any organization. No pollster was more accurate. Only four other organizations predicted primary results with 90 percent accuracy or greater.




Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,352 registered voters across Ohio, of which 558 indicated they would vote in the Democratic Primary and 686 in the Republican Primary. The poll was conducted from April 27th through May 2nd and has a margin of error of ±2.7%. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The poll was conducted using interactive voice responses and online panels of cell phone users, with the results weighted by voting patterns. The weighting was applied overall, and by demographic makeup of the party primary voters.

2) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump?




3) Do you approve or disapprove of Governor John Kasich’s job performance?

4) Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Sherrod Brown’s job performance?




5) Do you plan on voting in the Republican or Democratic Primary for the 2018 Elections?




6) If the Democratic Primary election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Connie Pillich, Betty Sutton, and Joe Schiavoni, who would you vote for?
gravis marketing poll

7) If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Mary Taylor, Jon Husted, Jim Renacci, and Mike DeWine, who would you vote for?
2018 ohio poll




8) If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel, who would you vote for?
ohio poll

9) If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Pat Tiberi, who would you vote for?

The following questions are for demographic purposes:
10) What is your party affiliation?

11) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?

12) What race do you identify yourself as?

13) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?




14) What is the highest level of education you have completed?

15) How old are you?

16) What is your gender?




Current Montana Polling



Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,222 individuals across Montana. The poll has a margin of error of ±2.9%. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The poll was conducted using interactive voice responses and internet responses of cell phone users, with the results weighted by demographic characteristics.

2) How likely are you to vote in the Montana U.S. House special election?

3) Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s job performance?

4) Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bullock’s job performance?

5) Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tester’s job performance?

6) If the special election for Congress were held today and the candidates were Republican Greg Gianforte, Democrat Rob Quist, Libertarian Mark Wicks, and Green Thomas Breck, who would you vote for?

The following questions are for demographic purposes:
7) What is your party affiliation?

8) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?

9) What race do you identify yourself as?

10) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

11) What is the highest level of education you have completed?

12) How old are you?

13) What is your gender?